High-risk research tool, not financial advice. 18+ only. You may lose everything you risk. Prediction-market access may be illegal in your jurisdiction โ€” check before acting. Terms & risk โ†’
P

Launching โ€” early access open

Understand Polymarket
before you risk money.

We analyze 1,500+ markets daily and show where probabilities don't match the price. Every market gets an AI-calibrated probability, a mispricing score, and the cited evidence behind the call. See today's analysis in seconds โ€” no money on the line required.

See today's market analysisView real probability breakdowns โ†’
โœ“ Free ยท no credit cardโœ“ Daily analysisโœ“ Public backtest
โญ Today's Top Tip

Crypto ยท DEEP

Will ETH close above $2,500 by end of week?

AI Prob

64%

Market

46%

Edge

+18.0%

Conf

0.72

+ Log $50 on YES
Poly โ†—

mock preview ยท real picks live on dashboard

1,500+

Markets scanned daily

every morning

10

Deep AI signals / day

5 prediction + 5 sports

7

Categories covered

crypto, politics, sportsโ€ฆ

ยฑ5 pts

Calibration target

AI vs actual outcome

How prediction markets really work

A Polymarket price isn't a probability โ€” it's the average bet of everyone who clicked. Sometimes right, often very wrong. We measure the gap between the crowd's price and the real probability โ€” and hand you the evidence behind it.

How we identify mispriced markets

Fully automated. You wake up, check the dashboard, decide.

1
1

We scan 1,500+ markets

Every morning our system reviews every active Polymarket event and identifies which are worth a deeper look.

2
2

We research, not guess

Live web research + market data + historical base rates โ€” hundreds of data points per market, all cited.

3
3

We measure the mispricing

Calibrated probability vs the current market price. Clear edge, clear confidence, clear reasoning.

4
4

You decide

We don't place bets โ€” we show you the analysis. You choose whether to act, skip, or learn.

What you get every morning

One Top Tip. Five Alpha Signals. Full context.

Each pick comes with our AI's probability estimate, the market price, the edge, a confidence score, scenario analysis, and cited sources. Click to log a bet โ€” we check the live Polymarket price first and warn you if the edge has decayed.

  • โœ“2-4 paragraphs of reasoning, cited sources
  • โœ“Bear / base / bull scenario probabilities
  • โœ“Live-edge safety check before every bet log
  • โœ“Weekly recalibration based on resolved outcomes

Crypto ยท DEEP

Will Bitcoin close above $100K on April 30?

AI 72%ยทMkt 61%ยท+11.0%YES

Sports ยท STANDARD

Bayern Munich vs Real Madrid โ€” Bayern wins

AI 58%ยทMkt 49%ยท+9.0%YES

Finance ยท DEEP

Will Fed cut rates at May meeting?

AI 38%ยทMkt 52%ยท-14.0%NO

Two strategies. One system.

Prediction markets and sports markets behave differently โ€” so we use two different playbooks.

๐ŸŽฏ

Prediction

Edge-hunting. Crypto, politics, finance, AI โ€” these markets are reasonably efficient, so real profit comes from mispricings. We look for markets where our AI disagrees meaningfully with the crowd.

  • โ€ข High edge ร— high confidence
  • โ€ข Base-rate anchored + threshold math
  • โ€ข Live on-chain / price ground-truth for crypto
๐Ÿ†

Sports

Add-on +$15/mo

Confidence-matching.Polymarket sports prices lag sharp bookmakers by hours โ€” so the edge is there when our AI confirms the sharp consensus and Polymarket hasn't caught up.

  • โ€ข Same-day matches supported
  • โ€ข Esports tagged ๐ŸŽฎ separately from classic sports
  • โ€ข Sharp-book comparison + injury / lineup signals

Show me the calibration.

Any AI can claim accuracy. We publish the proof.

๐Ÿ“ˆ

Public backtest

Every resolved prediction, sortable. Full P&L simulation. Reliability plot. No login required.

View /stats โ†’
๐Ÿงช

Weekly retraining

Every Sunday we retrain per-category confidence thresholds from the week's resolved picks. The system corrects itself.

How we measure โ†’
โš ๏ธ

Accuracy-first

When evidence is thin, we match the market price and say 'no edge'. NEUTRAL is a valid output.

How it works โ†’

Simple, honest pricing

Free tier never expires. Backtest + calibration plot stay open.

Free

$0forever

  • โœ“1 Top Tip daily
  • โœ“Full backtest + calibration plot
  • โœ“Read-only portfolio
  • โœ“Upgrade to Pro anytime, cancel anytime
Create free account
Most popular

Pro

$29/month

  • โœ“5 daily Alpha Signals + extended list
  • โœ“Full reasoning, sources, scenarios
  • โœ“Bankroll ledger + Kelly sizing
  • โœ“WhatsApp strong-signal alerts
  • โœ“CSV export + backtest pro filters
  • โœ“Monthly or yearly (save 2 mo on annual)
Subscribe to Pro

Pro โ€” Yearly

$290/year

  • โœ“Everything in monthly Pro
  • โœ“2 months free vs monthly
  • โœ“Lock in current pricing
  • โœ“Same features, lower cost
  • โœ“Cancel anytime, full access until renewal
Subscribe yearly

All plans cancel anytime ยท Invoicing & VAT handled by Stripe ยท No hidden fees

Questions, answered

How do I bet on Polymarket?+
You need a Polymarket account (requires a crypto wallet), USDC on the Polygon network to fund it, and (in restricted countries) a VPN. We have step-by-step guides โ€” including country-specific instructions.
Can I see the accuracy before paying?+
Yes. Our /stats page is public, shows every resolved prediction with category breakdown, and includes a reliability plot so you can verify calibration yourself. Free tier never expires.
What's the difference between Free and Pro?+
Free users get 1 Top Tip per day + full backtest access. Pro ($29/mo or $290/year โ€” 2 months free) unlocks all 5 daily Alpha Signals, full reasoning + sources, the bankroll ledger with Kelly sizing, WhatsApp alerts, and CSV export. Cancel any time.
How is the Sports add-on different?+
Sports events resolve in hours, not weeks, and have a competing efficient market (Pinnacle, Circa). We use a confidence-based strategy (AI + sharp books align) rather than edge-hunting. It's a separate section with 5 daily picks, $15/mo on top of Pro.
Is this legal where I am?+
PolyGuru is an information service โ€” you make your own betting decisions. Polymarket itself isn't available in every country (US residents should check their state's rules). If your country is flagged, our bet-log button disables automatically. See our country-specific guides for details.
Do I need a Polymarket account to use PolyGuru?+
No. You can use PolyGuru for picks analysis and P&L tracking even if you bet elsewhere (or not at all). Every signal links to the underlying Polymarket market if you want to place the bet.
Can I cancel anytime?+
Yes. Stripe handles billing, cancel from your account at any time. Monthly plans stop at the end of the current month; yearly plans stop at the end of the current billing year. You keep full access until the period ends.

Start free. See today's pick.

Your free account unlocks today's Top Tip + full backtest access in under 30 seconds. No credit card.

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