Launching — early access open
Beat the market.
Not by guessing.
PolyGuru runs Claude Sonnet + Gemini ensemble analysis on every active Polymarket event each morning, grounded in live web research and real exchange data. You get 5 prediction + 5 sports deep-analyzed alpha signals daily. Every signal is measured against its own track record — our calibration plot is public.
Crypto · DEEP
Will ETH close above $2,500 by end of week?
AI Prob
64%
Market
46%
Edge
+18.0%
Conf
0.72
mock preview · real picks live on dashboard
1,500+
Markets analyzed daily
every morning
10
Deep alpha signals / day
5 prediction + 5 sports
7
Categories covered
crypto, politics, sports, finance…
±5 pts
Calibration target
AI prob vs actual outcome
Prediction markets are a research job.
Every Polymarket event needs hours of reading to price correctly. News, polls, on-chain data, odds, history — across 1,500+ live markets. You can't do that. We automated it, ran it through a calibration check, and publish the output every morning.
How PolyGuru works
Four stages, fully automated, cost ~$10/sweep to run. You wake up to the output.
Sync
Every 30 min we pull the full Polymarket board and filter to researchable markets by volume, liquidity, and resolution window.
Research
Brave Search + Gemini grounded web research pulls 5-15 fresh sources per market. For crypto we also pull live CoinGecko price + 30-day volatility.
AI ensemble
Claude Sonnet 4.5 + Gemini 2.5 run a 5-rule verification framework (market-price prior, source hierarchy, temporal anchor, threshold-math, confidence cap) — and cap their own confidence when the evidence is thin.
Curate
Top 5 prediction + 5 sports alpha signals land in your dashboard by 7:15 UTC. Category-diverse. Sports uses a confidence-matching strategy; prediction uses edge-hunting.
What you get every morning
One Top Tip. Five Alpha Signals. Full context.
Each pick comes with: AI vs. market probability, edge %, confidence score, bull/bear/base scenarios, dated sources, catalysts, and trading implications. Click to log a bet — we then fetch the live Polymarket price and warn you if the edge has decayed before you click submit.
- ✓2-4 paragraphs of dated reasoning
- ✓Cited sources with TIER 1 primary-data preference
- ✓Bear / base / bull scenario probabilities
- ✓Live-edge safety check before every bet log
- ✓Weekly self-learning recalibration per category
Crypto · DEEP
Will Bitcoin close above $100K on April 30?
Sports · STANDARD
Bayern Munich vs Real Madrid — Bayern wins
Finance · DEEP
Will Fed cut rates at May meeting?
Two strategies. One system.
Prediction and Sports markets behave differently — so we use two different betting playbooks.
Prediction
Edge-hunting. Crypto, politics, finance, AI — these markets are relatively efficient, so real profit comes from mispricings. We look for markets where our AI disagrees meaningfully with the crowd, backed by TIER 1 primary evidence.
- • High edge (≥10pt) × High confidence (≥0.65)
- • Base-rate anchored + threshold math
- • Live CoinGecko ground truth for price markets
Sports
Add-on +$15/moConfidence-matching. Sports Polymarket lags sharp bookmakers (Pinnacle, Circa) — so the edge is there when AI + sharp books align on a favorite. We look for high-conviction picks where the odds cluster, not divergence.
- • Same-day markets supported (match today? included)
- • Esports tagged 🎮 separately from classic sports
- • Sharp-book comparison + injury / lineup signals
Show me the calibration.
Any AI can claim accuracy. We publish the proof — every resolved prediction, its actual outcome, and our cumulative reliability plot.
Public backtest
Every resolved prediction, sortable by category, depth, date. Full P&L simulation. Calibration reliability plot. No login required.
View /stats →Weekly self-learning
Every Sunday we retrain per-category confidence weights from the week's resolved picks. Under-performing categories get stricter thresholds automatically.
See methodology →Accuracy-first design
Rules: market-price Bayesian prior (±10pt max without TIER 1 evidence), single-source confidence cap (≤0.45), mandatory verification checklist. NEUTRAL by default when uncertain.
How it works →Simple, honest pricing
Free tier is the marketing. Backtest + calibration plot stay open even if you never upgrade.
Free
$0forever
- ✓1 Top Tip daily
- ✓Full backtest + calibration plot
- ✓Read-only portfolio
- ✓14-day Pro trial available anytime
Pro
$29/month
- ✓5 daily Alpha Signals + extended list
- ✓Full reasoning, sources, scenarios
- ✓Bankroll ledger + Kelly sizing
- ✓WhatsApp strong-signal alerts
- ✓CSV export + backtest pro filters
- ✓14-day trial, no credit card
Pro + Sports
$44/month
- ✓Everything in Pro
- ✓+ 5 sports alpha signals daily
- ✓+ Sports dashboard + markets
- ✓+ Same-day match picks
- ✓+ Esports tagged separately
- ✓Pro required ($29 + $15 add-on)
All plans cancel anytime · Invoicing & VAT handled by Stripe · No hidden fees
Questions, answered
How does PolyGuru pick signals?+
Can I see the accuracy before paying?+
What's the edge vs placing bets on Polymarket directly?+
Do I need a Polymarket wallet?+
How is the Sports add-on different from Pro?+
Is this legal / can I use it in my country?+
What AI does PolyGuru use?+
Can I cancel anytime?+
Wake up to your edge.
Your free account unlocks today's Top Tip + full backtest access in under 30 seconds. No credit card required.
14-day Pro trial available · cancel anytime · Free tier never expires