The PolyGuru Blog
Guides, reviews, and calibration methodology.
Practical guides for fogadók + engineering deep-dives on how we keep our AI honest. No growth-hacker filler.
Common Polymarket mistakes: a reference list for new traders
Every Polymarket mistake is a known mistake. Here's the top 10, ranked by how much money they cost. If you check against this list before every bet, you're ahead of 80% of traders.
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How to find value bets on Polymarket: 5-step framework
Finding value bets isn't art, it's process. Filter by liquidity, cross-check sharp books, estimate with base rates, measure edge, size with Kelly. The discipline separates winners from donors.
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Why most people lose money on Polymarket (the honest answer)
Most Polymarket users lose slowly, not because they predict badly, but because they don't measure edge, over-bet on extreme prices, and chase losses. Here's the actual loss pipeline.
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How to read Polymarket odds (without getting fooled)
Polymarket displays contract prices in cents (65¢) not fractional or American odds. Converting is trivial; the subtle part is the fee & slippage adjustment most users ignore.
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How Polymarket pricing works: CLOB, AMM, and real liquidity
Polymarket prices don't come from magic — they come from a CLOB plus an AMM, each with quirks. Here's how a market actually moves, and what the spread between 62¢ and 65¢ is really costing you.
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How to bet on Polymarket: the complete 2026 beginner's guide
Polymarket is the largest real-money prediction market on the internet. This guide walks you through account creation, funding, placing your first bet, and cashing out — with the country restrictions and workarounds you need to know.
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What is edge in prediction markets? The complete explanation
Edge is the gap between your probability estimate and the market price. It's also the single number that determines whether you make money in the long run. Here's how to measure and use it.
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How to avoid losing money on Polymarket: the 7 common mistakes
Most losing Polymarket bettors make the same 7 mistakes. None of them are about being bad at predicting. They're about ignoring fees, liquidity, and edge math.
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How Polymarket probabilities work: a plain-English guide
A 65¢ YES price is not a 65% chance. It's what the crowd of recent buyers was willing to pay. The difference matters. Here's how to read a Polymarket market correctly.
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How to bet on Polymarket with a VPN (2026 complete guide)
Polymarket is restricted in your country? A reliable VPN solves it. This guide covers which VPN actually works, how to set it up on desktop and mobile, and the safety considerations nobody tells you about.
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How to bet on Polymarket from Hungary in 2026
Hungary isn't on Polymarket's explicit block list, but the service can be flaky without a VPN and Hungarian banks may flag crypto-gambling transfers. Here's the end-to-end setup that works cleanly.
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