The PolyGuru Blog
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theoryprobabilitymethodology· 21 Apr 2026· 5 min read
What is prediction market probability? Theory + practice
In theory a prediction market price equals the true probability (efficient-market hypothesis). In practice it equals the average of recent buyers — and that's often very different.
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methodologystatisticscalibration· 14 Apr 2026· 5 min read
Why calibration beats accuracy in prediction markets
"85% accurate" sounds impressive. It's also a red flag. In prediction markets, what matters is whether your 70% picks actually happen 70% of the time. That's calibration.
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