The PolyGuru Blog
Guides, reviews, and calibration methodology.
Practical guides for fogadók + engineering deep-dives on how we keep our AI honest. No growth-hacker filler.
Common Polymarket mistakes: a reference list for new traders
Every Polymarket mistake is a known mistake. Here's the top 10, ranked by how much money they cost. If you check against this list before every bet, you're ahead of 80% of traders.
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Polymarket vs traditional betting: which is better for sharps?
Sportsbooks hate sharps and limit them fast. Exchanges (Betfair, Smarkets) tolerate sharps but have limited market breadth. Polymarket is neutral but has geoblocks. Here's the trade-off map.
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How to find value bets on Polymarket: 5-step framework
Finding value bets isn't art, it's process. Filter by liquidity, cross-check sharp books, estimate with base rates, measure edge, size with Kelly. The discipline separates winners from donors.
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Why most people lose money on Polymarket (the honest answer)
Most Polymarket users lose slowly, not because they predict badly, but because they don't measure edge, over-bet on extreme prices, and chase losses. Here's the actual loss pipeline.
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What is edge in prediction markets? The complete explanation
Edge is the gap between your probability estimate and the market price. It's also the single number that determines whether you make money in the long run. Here's how to measure and use it.
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How to avoid losing money on Polymarket: the 7 common mistakes
Most losing Polymarket bettors make the same 7 mistakes. None of them are about being bad at predicting. They're about ignoring fees, liquidity, and edge math.
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